Bitcoin: Many Bitcoin enthusiasts have heard of the Pi Cycle Top indicator, which “magically” predicts the peaks of several previous bull markets. However, few people know about the opposite, Pi Cycle Bottom. So, what levels does this metric point to as the bottom in BTC? Here are the expectations…
- 1 Historical event of Pi Cycle Top
- 2 Bitcoin bottom and bear cycle with Pi Cycle
- 3 When will Bitcoin hit bottom?
- 4 Share this:
Historical event of Pi Cycle Top
The historical effectiveness of this signal has shown various peaks in the largest cryptocurrency. For example, the Pi Cycle Top Signal started on April 12, 2021, and just two days later, Bitcoin hit a historic all-time high (ATH) of $64,900. This high accuracy of the Pi Cycle Top was no exception, as the indicator was also very effective in previous cycles. All 3 historical ATHs of previous bull markets coincided with the signal flashing no more than 5 days before or after the peak.
The only ATH that the Pi Cycle Top is far from surpassing is the latest. On November 10, 2021, the indicator failed to produce a signal when BTC reached $69,000. At the time, this was interpreted as a sign that the second wave of the bull market was not over yet.
Pi Cycle Bottom is the opposite of Pi Cycle Top. The bearish version, according to analysts, is the relationship between the 471 SMA and the 150 EMA. It seems that the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator can be successfully used to predict the area of the absolute bottom of the previous two bear markets (blue lines). The 150 EMA fell below the 471 SMA for the first time on January 16, 2015. This happened just two days after BTC price bottomed out at $152. Pi Cycle Bottom produced the same signal for the second time on December 16, 2018. This comes just one day after the previous bear market’s absolute low at $3122. According to Jakub Dziadkowiec, an analyst, we are currently approaching the third signal in history and another downtrend of the two moving averages (blue circle).
According to the analyst, if the relationship between the intersection of the two moving averages and the bottom of the BTC price repeats itself in this cycle, Bitcoin may soon reach the bottom of this bear market. Currently, the 150 EMA has initiated the sharp bearish feature of the last capitulation phase. There is a possibility of a transition in the coming days. Cryptocurrency market analyst “TheRealPlanC” tweeted his own prediction regarding the breakout date and the date of reaching a hypothetical bottom for Bitcoin. Based on the motion trajectory of the two curves, he predicted that the intersection would occur on July 9, 2022.
If that happens, then in exactly 15 days Pi Cycle Bottom will generate a signal that very accurately indicates the BTC price bottom on the previous two times. Another analyst combined the potential signal from the Pi Cycle Bottom with fractal analysis of previous cycles. According to the analyst named “el_crypto_prof”, if a potential Bitcoin bottom occurs in the near future, it fits well with the analogies between previous cycles.
In the chart above, we can see that for the entire period from April 2021, the analyst includes the post-ATH correction phase highlighted in red. It also includes the latest ATH of $69,000, reached on Nov. While technically a higher BTC price has been reached, many technical and onchain indicators suggest that this is already a bear market, according to the analyst. Dziadkowiec concludes his analysis with the following statements:
Perhaps this was the reason why the Pi Cycle Top was not producing a suitable signal. If this is true and the BTC market correction has been going on for more than a year, then indeed we can expect the long-term bearish to end soon.
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